Published: 2018-11-01 14:01:38
Bitcoin Cash Price Analysis: BCH Stuck in Range Mode Ahead of Nov 15 Hard Fork

Despite everything, BCH/USD is technically bearish but stable above $400. This price tag is important and actually anchors our analysis as it marks the lower limit of our trade range, a support line which if broken say because of uncertainty or BTC meltdown would mean confirmation of bear break out of early August and bear trend continuation.

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As the home of BitMex, OkEx, and several noteworthy exchanges, Hong Kong is a refuge for cryptocurrency exchanges and projects who ran away from the heavy-handedness of Chinese regulators. Hong Kong is simply a blockchain hub and the territory leaders are not shy away from lauding the importance of blockchain as an emerging technology that may not only disrupt existing systems but may cause a funding revolution should regulation thrive in an ecosystem that is technically borderless.

The country’s main regulator, the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC), is now introducing new rules that may force exchanges—except those incentivizing their clients or offering crypto futures and derivatives, to comply with anti-money laundering and KYC rules. Qualifying exchanges need to test out the sandbox and if they prove their ability to enforce AML/KYC then they shall be granted an operating license.

While some are lauding their effort, talks of regulation have never been received well in the space. But maximalist must note that space is still growing and relatively small compared to traditional financial systems commandeering trillions. Besides, the expectation of institutional involvement inevitably demands proper oversight as this goes a long way in weeding out manipulation as wash trading which continues to plague the ecosystem.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Price Analysis

BCH/USD Weekly Chart

BCH/USD Price Analysis

Despite all the hype and expectation of a BTC—BCH moon sling, there is this unusual calm in the space. Losses in BCH are low printing 4.1 percent and relatively stable in the last day gaining roughly one percent. In the midst of this is expected is the sobering reality that BCH might end up crashing should Roger Ver fail to mend the differences between Bitcoin ABC and Bitcoin SV whose leader(s) Craig Wright and CoinGeek want to see Satoshi peer to peer electronic cash payment system flow through BCH.

What that means is that if there is a failure, BCH might crash below $400 confirming the bear break out pattern set rolling by the price action of early August and confirmed by strong losses in early Sep and October.

All in all, patience is key and as long as prices oscillate within the $200 range between $400 and $600, conservative or risk-on traders should take a neutral stance until there are convincing breakouts in either direction as laid out in our last BCH/USD trade plan.

BCH/USD Daily Chart

BCH/USD Price Analysis

The consolidation in the weekly chart is clear in the daily chart. Here, the significance of $400 is clear and in line with our projections now that BCH is down +90 percent from 2017 highs, BCH is technically bearish but losses could slow down as expectations of a bull run mill this quarter.

However, as aforementioned, it may be dashed if there is any form of Oct 11 and 29 bear confirmation breaking below $400 today or in coming days. All in all, there is no incentive to take trades in such a ranging market and in a network that is held back by uncertainties around network upgrade.

This is why despite everything, we recommend refraining from taking BCH related pairs until after Nov 15, 2018.

Disclaimer: Views and opinions expressed are those of the author and aren’t investment advice. Trading of any form involves risk and so do your due diligence before making a trading decision.

New Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Hard Fork Details: Who vs Who, What vs What

The views and opinions expressed in the article BCH Stuck in Range Mode Ahead of Nov 15 Hard Fork do not reflect that of nor of its originally published source. Article does not constitute financial advice. Proceed with caution and always do your own research.

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